I’ve been watching the vintage watch market for 15 years. What’s happening now makes no sense.
The Numbers #
A beat-up Rolex 1016 Explorer that sold for €4,000 in 2015 now commands €25,000+. Same watch. Same condition. Different decade.
Universal Genève Polerouters - once €800 finds - now start at €3,000 for mediocre examples. Clean specimens with original dials? €8,000 minimum.
Omega Seamaster 300s from the 1960s crossed €15,000 average this year. Five years ago, €5,000 bought an excellent example.
What’s Driving This? #
Several factors converging at once.
Instagram collectors discovered vintage as an aesthetic. Patina photographs well. Stories about “real tool watches” get engagement. Demand increased from people who never cared about watches before.
Supply is fixed. There will never be more 1016 Explorers made. Every one that breaks or gets lost is gone forever. Basic scarcity economics.
Investment narrative took hold. Watch media pushed “your watch is an asset” stories. Wealthy buyers started treating vintage pieces like alternative investments.
Authentication improved. Better resources for spotting fakes and franken-watches means buyers have more confidence. That confidence enables higher prices.
The Problem #
Entry-level vintage collecting is dying. The €500 discovery that gets you hooked? Those watches now cost €2,000.
New collectors get priced out before they start. The hobby becomes exclusive to people who were already wealthy.
And the investment mindset poisons enthusiasm. Every purchase becomes a financial calculation rather than an emotional one. “Will this appreciate?” replaces “Does this bring me joy?”
My Advice #
Ignore the hot stuff. Let the hype-chasers fight over Explorers and Daytonas.
Look at brands that haven’t been “discovered” yet. Enicar makes beautiful chronographs that still trade under €2,000. Mido had some fascinating designs. Bulova Accutrons offer genuine technological innovation for €300-500.
The joy of vintage is finding something overlooked. When everyone else realizes its value, move on to the next thing.
Or just buy what you like and stop caring about resale. Revolutionary concept.